Tuesday 5 January 2016

Performance

       प्रदर्शन


NAME
PRICE WHEN REPORTED
DATE
CMP (05/01/16)
PERCENTAGE RETURN
Prime focus
36
13/06/13
56.70
57 %
Future Retail
90
10/07/13
210 ( EX demerger)
133%
Himatsingka Seide
32
10/07/13
220
587 %
Balmer Lawrie
310
29/03/2014
625
95 %
Mastek
432
25/02/2015
950 (EX DEMERGER)
119 %
Dion Global
84
25/02/2015
144
71 %
Camlin fine sciences
90
09/05/2015
105
16%
Nilkamal
1250
03/01/2016
1400
12 %



Just a little update on the performance of my blog over the years . All the shares are giving positive returns . Trust me when I say , Its more to do with luck then skills . I will suggest to book profit in Prime Focus and Future retail  Mainly because I was more of a speculator until May 2013 , I read some books  that  changed my investment Philosophy e.g. Margin of Safety By Seth klarman (Pirated downloaded from the Chinese website because I do not  have 10000 $ to buy the used book from  Amazon and If i had 10000 $ , still i wouldn't have bought it ) , Fooled By Randomness by Nasim Nicholas Taleb  . I will suggest to continue holding all other shares for long term .  

I promise ,  I will write more in 2016


Thanks .

Sunday 3 January 2016

Nilkamal Limited



                                                                  

NILKAMAL

In last 2 decades of Indian capital market history the clear standout winners are Nestle , Itc , United Spirits , Symphony , Relaxo , Titan etc. . One common quality in all of these businesses is widely accepted Brands.

Nilkamal is one of the widely accepted brand which is highly popular but also highly underrated.


Nilkamal Limited is Asia's largest plastic processor of moulded products based in India .It is also world's largest manufacturer of moulded furniture. The Furniture product range comprises Plastic Furniture, Material Handling Crates and Bins, Baby Table, Center Table, Dining Table, Planter, Rack, Stool, Industrial Pallets, Waste Bins, Insulated Crates etc.


NILKAMAL'S CORE BUSINESSES


·         Material Handling Solutions

·         Moulded Furniture

·         Nilkamal Mattrezzz

·         Nilkamal Home Ideas, the Home Furnishing Store

·         @home, the Mega Home Store Retail Chain


The Company has 8 large manufacturing plants in India:

·         North - Samba (Jammu & Kashmir) and Greater Noida (Uttar Pradesh)


·         East - Barjora (West Bengal)


·         West - Sinnar, Nashik (Maharashtra) and Silvassa (Union Territory of Dadra & Nagar Haveli) (2 plants)


·         South -Pondicherry (Union Territory) and Hosur (Tamilnadu)


The Company has advanced machinery in Injection Moulding, Rotational Moulding, Vacuum Forming, Polyurethane Injection (of insulation) and capabilities for Blow Moulding.



Following is last 12 quarter summery of the Company’s performance.



Quarterly Results Consolidated


Dec 2012
Mar 2013
June 2013
Sep 2013
Dec 2013
Mar 2014
June 2014
Sep 2014
Dec 2014
Mar 2015
June 2015
Sep 2015
Sales
390.66
438.38
387.69
420.52
376.70
458.09
415.21
455.66
418.98
488.14
455.08
479.05
Expenses
364.75
414.59
359.74
381.46
347.57
418.08
389.07
427.23
389.87
442.31
405.68
431.20
Operating Profit
29.43
28.75
31.50
42.63
32.00
42.35
29.17
31.45
33.94
49.96
54.34
54.07
OPM
7.53
6.56
8.13
10.14
8.49
9.24
7.03
6.90
8.10
10.23
11.94
11.29
Other Income
1.51
1.68
1.24
1.24
0.95
0.09
0.89
0.64
2.81
2.00
2.47
3.76
Depreciation
10.75
10.73
11.66
13.86
11.39
12.02
14.05
13.78
13.76
12.16
12.28
12.61
Interest
11.21
10.97
10.68
10.54
10.41
9.80
7.54
7.84
8.58
6.29
5.06
4.37
Profit before tax
7.47
7.04
9.16
18.23
10.20
20.54
7.58
9.83
11.60
31.51
36.99
37.09
Tax
2.02
2.25
2.92
5.68
3.09
6.41
2.11
2.99
3.14
9.82
11.69
11.35
Net Profit
5.45
4.79
6.24
12.55
7.11
14.13
5.47
6.84
8.46
21.69
25.30
25.74



































 In Last 4 quarter, NilKamal has performed very well. Main Reasons of these outstanding result are :

  1.  Crude oil prices decline
  2. People shifting from wooden to plastic furniture
  3. @home Business started generating profit



Future Prospects:


In my view, Very few people are aware of the material handling business of Nilkamal. They are market leader in material handling space which had a tremendous future prospect in a growing Country like India. I am also super bullish on furniture and Mattress division of the company.



Valuation and View:


The company is run by highly efficient promoters with 64 % shareholding. They are pairing down the debts in every quarter and they also don’t have big capex planned for the future. From 0.85 debt/equity in 2011 now company only has 0.33 times debt/equity and most of the debt of the company is mainly working capital .Long term debt to equity is only 0.01 times which is almost debt free.

I am not an expert   to predict crude oil price in the future but if we analyze last 10 years financials of the company , Nilkamal also did well when crude was 100 $ per barrel 


At market cap of 1800 crore rs (250 million USD) it is  a market leader in most of the areas of their business. At the market price of 1250 rs per share at expected Eps of 65 in financial year 2016 and 85 in 2017, it is trading at 19 P/E and 15 P/E respectively. Nilkamal is undervalued at 1250 being market leader in many fields.